Ockham's Razor and the "Most Boring Hypothesis"

Remember that doing science is all about not fooling yourself. With that in mind, consider this. Suppose you see a situation where there are two different plausible explanations for a given set of facts that have been very well established. This may be in your own science experiments, or anywhere else in any sphere of your life. How do you decide which of the competing theories to accept as your working hypothesis, that is, the hypothesis that you hold as the one that is more likely to be closest to the Truth?

Experience teaches the following remarkable fact: If you always prefer the more boring hypothesis you'll turn out to be right far more often than not. This rule of preferring the most boring hypothesis is so famous that it even has a name. We call it Ockham's Razor.

Here's an example. Suppose when you step out of the shower you are startled see what looks like a ghostly pattern of baby footprints standing out in the condensation on your bathroom mirror. One hypothesis you might consider is that your house is haunted and that some departed spirit is trying to send you a message. Another hypothesis is that a family member is playing a trick on you. Since no one has ever been able to scientifically establish that ghosts exist, (and there is plenty of reasons to suspect that they don't) the ghost hypothesis is a pretty remarkable one. But clearly your family members do exist. And even if no one ever played a trick on you before, and even if everyone in your family denies doing it, the notion that someone is trying to trick you now is clearly a far more boring explanation than that you've been visited by a spirit from the Great Beyond. Therefore, the you should accept the practical joke explanation as the one that is most likely to be the correct one.

That's not to say that strange or remarkable ideas are always wrong. There certainly have been circumstances when truly bizarre theories like Quantum Mechanics and Continental Drift were eventually favored by the data. (And the moment they were, Ockham's Razor required the scientists of those times to change their minds and accept the newer idea as the one closer to the Truth.) But these cases are very rare and as we learn more and more about the Universe, they tend to happen less and less often. So Ockham's Razor really does gives you very useful tool to use in your science, and everywhere else in life, that will enable you to be on the right side of a debate far more often than not.

Dr. Shawn

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Comments

[Doug Billings]

This is the best description of Ockham's Razor I've ever seen. Usually, this principle is states as prefering the "simplest" hypothesis. The problem with that is the idea that "God did it" is very simple, certainly much simpler than any theory of physics, but divine intervention seems quite remarkable and exciting. By contrast, the idea that the good ol laws of physics were responsible is certainly boring in comparison. At every turn the most boring hypothesis turns the seeker down the most cautious path, which was Ockham's intent in the first place.

From now on I am going to teach my classes that Ockham's Razor says we should prefer the most boring hypothesis, instead of the "simplest" hypothesis.

Thanks Dr. Shawn for this insight.

Doug Billings

[Shawn Carlson]

Actually, I sometimes also say one should prefer the "least remarkable" theory, meaning the one that is closest to the data and that makes the fewest new assumptions. I think this is better for scientists than "most boring", but I think "most boring" works best for students. I agree with you that "simplest" is ambiguous and unclear, esp. for students.

Dr. Shawn

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